Seven Predictions for 2025: 90s Country Edition

I can't believe I never did a theme of one of my favorite genres of music...

Welcome to yet another edition of the Seven Predictions, sure to be wrong or your money back! (Does not apply to VIP Subscriptions.)

This is one of my favorite annual traditions around this time of year. For those keeping track at home, I recently published my results from last year's predictions, and my lifetime average is .335.

As longtime readers know, each year has a different musical theme. What I discovered going all the way back to 2012 when I first did musical themes is that I never used one of my favorite music genres: country music. Sunny and I actually debated once which decade has the best music, and the 90s won over the 80s (we’re both Gen-X, so…) on the strength of 90s Country being significantly better than 80s Country.

So I am pleased to present my Seven Predictions for 2025 -- sure to be wrong! -- featuring one of the truly American musical genres. (Jazz and hip hop being the others, in case you were wondering.)

If you’re seeing this in your email inbox, you will want to come read it on the website. You’ve been warned. Pro tip: pour yourself a whiskey and settle in.

Let’s get into it.

1. The Association and the MLS Divorce… Finally…

While I realize that I could copy-and-paste predictions from the past, I do think maybe 2025 is the year when it finally happens. Yes, I realize I’ve already said just that in past predictions. Yes, I realize I have been wrong on basically all past predictions. Yes, I know this one is also guaranteed to be wrong.

But the NAR Settlement of 2024 does appear to have made a real impact on the dysfunctional codependent relationship between the Realtor Association and the MLS. Quite a few MLSs have written large checks to the lawyers in order to opt-in to the Settlement. They had to do that because they were forced to follow the rules that NAR promulgated. And quite a few of their larger broker-members are livid at NAR for throwing them under the bus.

Add to that these facts: NAR is out of liability coverage for antitrust, is either out of money now or will be soon, and is facing multiple lawsuits going forward… and MLSs everywhere are no longer all that scared of what Daddy NARbucks could do to them.

I have been talking about Divorce since 2016, and I have not heard so many MLS and Association insiders tell me (privately, of course, because… the culture of omerta) that they are taking a very serious look at separation. We are seeing social media posts all over the place talking about the need to separate the Association and the MLS; some of them are not from random agents, but from people who are past Presidents of Realtor Associations. We have already seen a number of significant MLSs who have passed new policies allowing for non-Realtor access to the MLS; that isn’t full separation, but it is a step towards divorce.

The sentiment has gotten so widespread, so mainstream in real estate, that T360 put Divorce into its Opportunity Report. I don’t think you can get more Real Estate Establishment than T360, and they are calling for separation.

This feels very different from 2016 and 2023. Something has changed.

Rather than repeat all of the reasons why I think the MLS and the Association should and will get divorced, I’ll ask you to go back and re-read my past Seven Predictions. I’m just going to be wrong again in predicting that the two will be goin’ through the Big D and don’t mean Dallas. Although… I wouldn’t rule out NTREIS and the Associations around DFW Metroplex goin’ through the Big D and actually meaning Dallas. We’ll have to see who’ll get the Jeep and who gets the palace.

2. The DOJ Sues NAR & MLS PIN

I have long said that while Trump will go to war against the DOJ overall, it will be against his enemies in the Criminal Division and others that have targeted him, rather than the Antitrust Division which really had very little to do with him. So D.O.G.E. and other efforts to eviscerate the DOJ will not, I think, spank the Antitrust Division quite as much.

I have also noted that Vice President Vance has spoken favorably about Lina Khan’s work at the FTC, and that the antitrust cognoscenti consider Vance to be a “Kahnservative” who take an unorthodox approach to antitrust for a Republican.

Well, we now know that President Trump has nominated Gail Slater to take over for Jonathan Kanter as the chief of the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice. Slater was Vance’s advisor and is the person in charge of vetting people for antitrust jobs in the new Trump administration. It would be a reasonable inference that Vance came by his Neo-Brandeisian position on antitrust because of advice from Slater.

Matt Stoller, who writes the antitrust-focused substack newsletter BIG, took a look at Trump’s antitrust agenda recently and wrote this about Gail Slater:

The risk was that these cases would be settled on the cheap and the investigations shut down. The Slater pick makes that less likely; she’s a competent, creative, and enforcement minded lawyer, with a background at Fox, Roku, and in the Federal Trade Commission. Right now, she’s on the staff of Senator J.D. Vance, and likely shares his economically populist views, most notably his belief that big tech is too powerful and needs to be broken up. I’m guessing that tech lobbyists are pretty unhappy.

I’m going to guess that NAR lobbyists are also pretty unhappy if Slater does turn out to share Khan and Kanter’s Neo-Brandeisian views. Big Tech completely overshadows real estate, but residential real estate is a $33 trillion asset class that affects every single American on an issue that Trump and Vance ran on: housing affordability. And NAR has tried to embarrass the DOJ quite recently.

Plus, as I noted in my analysis of the DOJ’s Statement of Interest on the NAR Settlement, the DOJ is signaling that it is done with proxy wars and will get into the fray directly:

The DOJ is not objecting to the Settlement. They specifically take no position on that. Instead, they say, “You do you, boo! Just make sure to tell everybody that your approval doesn’t mean a thing when it comes to the actual antitrust laws, and that this Settlement isn’t worth the paper it’s written on when we file our enforcement action.”

I’m not sure how much more clearly the DOJ can signal to NAR that they are comin’ for datazz. Not through somebody else, but directly.

Which is why I think the DOJ will bring its own lawsuit in 2025. Everything is likely going to wait for (a) the transition to the Trump Administration, and (b) the Supreme Court to deny NAR’s petition for certiorari.

Add on the latest development, of Harmeet Dhillon being named as the chief of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, (See #7 below) and I think it is all but certain that the DOJ will bring the heat in 2025. There will be fewer Statements of Interest and more Civil Investigative Demands, subpoenas, Complaints, and possibly indictments. As far as the DOJ is concerned, it will be time to get on down to the main attraction, with a little less talk, a lot more action.

3. Heartbreak for the Proponents of Clear Cooperation Policy

As we all know — if we’re anywhere near the residential real estate industry — Clear Cooperation Policy (CCP) is the hot topic du jour. Passions run high on both sides of that issue. I have certainly written about it, and spoken about it numerous times.

So I don’t really want to get into all of the arguments against or in favor of the CCP.

If I had to guess today, I would guess that sentiments run 70/30 or maybe 80/20 towards Defending the CCP vs. Attacking the CCP. Most of the commentators on the issue want to keep CCP alive, if not strengthen it by removing the Office Exclusive loophole.

However… I think 2025 brings us sad news for the proponents of CCP. I think the courts break some hearts next year.

There were two big civil lawsuits dealing with CCP: PLS.com v. NAR, and Top Agent Network v. NAR.

PLS settled with most of the co-defendant MLSs back in January, and then agreed to dismiss the case against NAR without prejudice (meaning, it can re-file at a later date).

Top Agent Network, however, has not settled. It revived its lawsuit after the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals reversed the lower court’s decision to dismiss the case. From HousingWire:

After being dismissed with prejudice in 2021 after a lower court ruled that TAN failed to state a claim with prejudice in its third amended complaint, the plaintiff appealed the ruling to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. In August 2023, the appeals court chose to vacate the lower court’s ruling by ruling that the allegations made in TAN’s suit were nearly identical to those made in a suit filed by The PLS.com, which had been allowed to proceed.

The suit was reopened in December 2023 by U.S. District Court Judge Vince Chhabria, who is overseeing the suit in San Francisco. TAN filed its motion for reconsideration in May 2024, which Chhabria granted in late July by noting that the plaintiff had “adequately alleged antitrust injury.”

Well, that TAN v. NAR case has now been scheduled to go to trial in November of 2025. A lot could happen between now and November of 2025, but none of it is likely to be helpful to NAR or to those who want CCP to remain.

At this point, I don’t actually expect that case to go to trial. I think NAR settles long before we get to November of 2025. Why?

One, because NAR is and will be beset by lawsuits. Top Agent Network is the least of NAR’s troubles. Homie v. NAR and Batton v. NAR (which has become the First Time Homebuyer’s case, after the Sitzer court ruled on final approval of the NAR Settlement) are both far more dangerous, at least financially.

Two, because the DOJ has made it perfectly clear that it intends to come after NAR, and CCP is at the top of their priorities list.

Three, because MLSs will put a finger up to check the wind and realize that they really need to distance themselves from NAR and from CCP. Quite a few MLSs are already going down the de-coupling route, and with that de-coupling, they will be able to pick and choose which NAR policies they will implement. CCP will not be one of those.

So when NAR does settle with Top Agent Network (and maybe with the DOJ), what practice change will be part of that? Not sure of what the full extent will be, but I am fairly confident that eliminating or significantly modifying CCP (to the point that it is more or less useless) will be part of the mix.

I am, therefore, predicting that 2025 has all sorts of entities — NAR, the courts, the DOJ, Top Agent Network, the MLS — tell the achy breaky heart of those who defend CCP, “Sorry!”

4. The Three-Way Agreement Goes Away

Put this one into the bin of “You already made this prediction over and over again, and got it wrong, over and over again.” And yet, to quote Whitesnake, here I go again, on my own.

Except 2025 might actually be the year when this happens. Last year, when I made this prediction, I noted that if a local Board wants to leave NAR, there ain’t a whole lot that NAR can do to keep ‘em:

NAR could, I suppose, sue to enforce the Agreement… but how do you keep a local board who no longer wants to be a REALTOR Association? NAR could force the local to pay any dues owed, but after that… what? How exactly do you keep a local who doesn’t want to stay?

Once a local board leaves, they and their members can no longer call themselves REALTORS. Oh noes! Whatever will they do?

Those images are from a study by the marketing agency 1000watt who produced some original research in partnership with BAM (Broke Agent Media). They surveyed more than 1,100 agents across the country about NAR and published the results.

I then said that I could see a state association read the tea leaves in light of the Sitzer verdict:

And what happens when the good people at the Texas Association of REALTORS see what’s happening, have some conversations with San Antonio, Austin, Houston, DFW area (MetroTex is just one of many local Associations there) and go… “You know, we should save ourselves.” So TAR becomes the Texas Association of Real Estate Experts.

Well. The Alabama Association of REALTORS sent a letter in September to NAR asking for an end to the Three-Way Agreement:

Additionally, AAR notes that “there is a growing and vocal desire for greater choice and flexibility in deciding where members spend their hard-earned membership and dues dollars. Members have expressed that they feel constrained within the current membership structure that requires them to join the local, state, and national levels. This sentiment is widespread across Alabama, in rural and urban areas, and among both small and large companies.”

Phoenix Realtors created a program called MLS Choice, saying:

This is the first time brokers will be able to offer their agents the opportunity to access both the MLS and legal forms, along with several existing benefits, outside of the traditional 3-tier membership system with local, state and national associations.

We believe that the real estate landscape is evolving, and we want to continue to evolve with it.

Well, NAR got right on that and sent Phoenix Realtors a cease and desist letter… a precursor to a lawsuit. This is not evidence of strength, but of weakness. As of this writing, I don’t know what the response of Phoenix Realtors is, but I doubt it will be getting on their knees to kiss the ring.

I suspect that as 2025 goes on, more and more associations both state and local will be looking to exit the Three-Way Agreement as well. Especially since the DOJ is quite likely to look very hard at that strange tying-arrangement of NAR’s, and since multiple lawsuits will be filed by brokers and agents claiming the Three-Way Agreement is an antitrust violation. We’ve already had two that I know of: Hardy v. NAR and Cassina v. NAR. More are likely coming.

So I’m doing it again! Even a broken clock is right twice a day, no? 2025 is when the Three-Way Agreement goes kaput, if not on paper then in fact as more and more locals and states simply… withdraw. I ain’t sayin’ it’s right or it’s wrong, but maybe simply leaving instead of fighting over the rule maybe the only way. Talk about your revolution, indeed.

5. Mass Consolidation in Brokerage

I realize I predicted last year that Anywhere would go on a rollup, using the advantage they had carved out for themselves in the settlement. That did not happen, as we all know.

But in 2025, I am once again predicting that a wave of mass consolidation hits the industry but for completely different reasons.

One of the biggest news items of 2024 was Compass acquiring @Properties, which also owns the Christie’s International Real Estate brand:

Compass Inc. (NYSE: COMP) ("Compass"), Christie's International Real Estate, and @properties have announced that they will be joining forces in a move to accelerate domestic and international growth opportunities.

Christie's International Real Estate has global reach with a network of 100+ independently owned domestic and international Affiliates across 50 countries and territories. @properties is the 8th largest residential brokerage in the United States by sales volume, with operations in Greater Chicago, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Metro Atlanta (through the Ansley Real Estate Brand). @properties' Northern California operation, under the Christie's International Real Estate Sereno brand, will become an independent brokerage while maintaining its network affiliation. Compass plans to continue to grow the independent affiliate network through the Christie's International Real Estate brand both domestically and internationally.

The deal combines the #1 and #8 brokerages by volume, and #4 and #11 by transaction sides. The two companies combined did 212,948 transaction sides in 2023. Add in the 100+ brokerages under the Christie’s International Real Estate brand, and there may be several thousand additional transactions as well.

A merger that big is important on its own, but what makes it even more significant is the fact that Robert Reffkin of Compass has emerged as the biggest critic and opponent of Clear Cooperation Policy.

As I wrote in the Seven Most Interesting People of 2024 post:

Except… Compass is doing more than just launching websites. Its recent acquisition of @Properties which is not only the #8 brokerage by sales volume, but also owns Christies International Real Estate brand, takes on greater significance in light of its opposition to CCP and its explicit 3-phased marketing strategy.

After all, there comes a point at which Compass owns enough of the market that it stops caring what the MLS’s rules on CCP are. Or, more likely, Compass forces other brokerages to make moves to gain market share as well.

Those of us in the industry already know that MRED — the MLS in the Chicagoland area — already allows for Private Listings. In theory, MRED’s Private Listings complies with CCP, since it requires entry:

Are there any rules regarding Private listings?

Yes. Any listing entered into connectMLS (whether private or standard), must be entered within 48 hours of the list date or within 24 hours of advertising to the general public, whichever happens first. Public advertising includes mediums such as for sale signs, public websites, and print media. Failure to comply with this rule will result in an automatic fine of $1,000.

Well, Compass and @Properties were #1 and #2 in Chicago, and the combined entity has almost three times the market share of the #3 brokerage, Coldwell Banker Realty the company-owned brokerage of Anywhere. They’re going to have a lot of inventory in the already-permitted Private Listings program.

The Real Deal article linked to above tells us that Baird & Warner and Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Chicago round out the top five. It further tells us that in a slowing market, the bigger brokerages had an advantage in recruiting agents:

“In a slowing market, the benefit of that is that you capture agents’ attention,” Wong said. “When you have a robust market, agents are so busy trying and working to thrive and generate the greatest outcome from an upward market. When the market slows, they can take a breath and they can focus on your business and how they service their clients.”

Compass’ Broude said the brokerage faced many of the same headwinds as other Chicago brokerages, but that it also zeroed in on recruiting as an opportunity of the slowing market.

Both of them plan to focus on increasing market share.

How would they do that?

As I have already laid out over and over again, most recently in this post on why CCP was ultimately doomed, quoting my friend James Dwiggins:

If we get rid of CCP, this is what residential real estate could look like:

• Small brokerages and franchisors will be at a massive disadvantage because large brokerages will hoard listings, making it nearly impossible to compete.

• Large brokerages will use this "internal inventory" to recruit agents away from the smaller companies.

…

• Or, if more than 15% of the inventory is not available to the big portals, they'll likely switch back to getting data directly from brokerages with some type of revenue share. MLSs across the country will be adversely affected by this and could even end up going away completely — only making these portals more powerful and the source of all real estate.

Unless I’m totally mistaken, Compass + @Properties likely means more than 15% of the inventory in the Chicagoland area. @Properties alone had over 20% market share. So that’s interesting to think about.

We already know that private listings is a superpower that makes it nearly impossible for small brokerages and franchisors to compete against big brokerages. We know that Compass + @Properties will be a nearly insurmountable presence in Chicago. The small brokerages will suffer, sure.

But what do the other big brokerages do?

Do they just sit back and allow Compass + @Properties to plunder their agents using “internal inventory” and market share to do so? Of course not. So what do they do?

Well, if you are Coldwell Banker Realty (#3) or Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Chicago (#5), you have got to be looking really, really hard at Baird & Warner (#4) as well as Dream Town Real Estate (#8) and others in the top 15, no? If you are eXp Realty (#10) and you want to remain competitive in recruiting in Chicago, don’t you also have to do the same?

And the thing that those three have that most of the others in the Top 15 do not have is money. Lots and lots of money and access to capital, as publicly traded companies. Hell, HomeServices can just go ask Uncle Buffett for cash to do acquisitions.

I think they go an acquisition spree to defend themselves against the monster that is Compass. They have to. Even if they are the biggest fans of CCP — like eXp Realty is — they have to get far more market share in major markets across the U.S. if they are to compete with Compass for producing agents.

Now do that across all of the NFL cities in the U.S. Not just with the Big Four public companies of Compass, Anywhere, eXp and HomeServices. Add in some of the other big players: Real, United Real Estate, HomeSmart, Howard Hanna. They all have to get bigger, or eventually get swallowed up by even bigger companies… after losing a ton of their productive agents to them.

So they will get bigger. A wave of consolidation will begin in the industry in 2025. I expect the top ten brokerages not named Redfin to be saying, “I’d leave you alone, darling, if I could. But I want you bad and that ain’t good.”

6. Commissions Fall For Real

When the verdict in Sitzer v. NAR was announced, there were quite a few voice who thought, “Oh man, real estate commissions are going to be half what they are today!” When the NAR Settlement was announced, quite a few people thought, “That’s it! Commissions are coming down!” When practice changes were implemented, a ton of folks thought commissions would get hammered.

None of those things have happened. Among the better studies done on commissions was by RISMedia. That study showed commissions falling by over 0.6%, from 5.64% in 2023-2024 to 4.96% from August 17th to October 7th. Buyer agent commission fell from 2.65% to 2.28% through same periods. RISMedia and the industry paint those as huge drops but… they’re really not, right?

I was mildly surprised to see any drop, but not particularly surprised that we didn’t see commissions crater. I have maintained from the very beginning that it will take time for a century-old system to change. Inertial is a very powerful thing, and human beings can’t switch on a dime.

But inertia is not all-powerful either. Over time, the free market will find a new equilibrium point. Which is why I think we will see commissions drop for real in 2025 — probably towards the latter part of the year. It won’t be because of some new lawsuit or the DOJ or whatever, but because competition in real estate is actually quite fierce.

We already know that discount brokerages are not exactly uncommon. Here in Las Vegas, one of the biggest promoters of the 1% Listing is Steve Hawks of Platinum Real Estate:

It isn’t as if there isn’t a Steve Hawks in just about every market in the United States. Famously, Redfin charges 1-1.5% to list a home. There appears to be a national franchise called 1 Percent Lists with offices throughout the U.S. These “1% to list” shops have been with us for over a decade now.

They have not truly disrupted the industry because the economics of 1% listing are not all that amazing in a cooperative compensation system. The total commission goes from 6% to 4% (or if you wish, from 5.64% to 3.64%), since the homeowner had best offer buy-side compensation, or his home just won’t get seen. That was the whole steering thing that the lawsuits and the DOJ and everybody else wanted to eliminate.

Well, that system has now been smashed. It will take some time for the market to adjust, but by the end of the summer market in 2025, most brokers and agents will have adopted what many of the leaders are promoting today: “Put it in the offer.” The refrain from the better trained agents will be, “My seller is willing to consider everything; just put it in the offer.”

Now these 1% shops have a whole new economic model. Now, the total cost to the seller is not 4%, but 1% plus “we’ll see.” From a competitive standpoint, walking in to a seller and saying, “I’ll charge you 4% while my competitor charges 6%” (1/3 savings) is less attractive than saying, “I’ll charge you 1% while my competitor charges 3%.” (2/3 savings).

Furthermore, these 1% shops have already figured out how to be profitable at a third of the listing-side commission rate. Whether that is through efficiency, technology, or whatever, they can make money on 1% whereas other brokers need to charge 3%.

Which means that I imagine we will start to see them offer “1% Buyside” services as well. We will then have the listing agent presenting offers to the seller where the request for compensation ranges from 1% to 3%; it seems relatively obvious to me that a buyer who only has to pay 1% to his buyer agent (in the written buyer agreement that is now required under the Settlement) should be able to make a stronger bid than a buyer who has to pay 3%.

With the MLS unable to communicate compensation offers at all, and every listing agent going the “Put it in the offer” route, it isn’t clear how brokers and agents will be able to blacklist discount brokerages going forward. Which means we will have fierce price competition in the industry.

If the 1% listing fee brokerages are joined by (and become themselves) 1% buyer fee brokerages… the total commission would fall to 2% — exactly in line with other countries that the plaintiffs in the commission lawsuits and the DOJ have cited over and over again.

That seems obvious to me, because I think the free market works and will find a new equilibrium. It will take time, of course. But I’m predicting that we start to see dramatically lower commission rates towards the end of 2025.

There will be gnashing of teeth, upset brokers and agents, folks who have to watch their broken dreams dance in and out of the beams of a neon moon. But there will also be those who will be alright as long as there’s light from a neon moon. Free market competition, after all, creates both losers and winners.

7. NAR Repeals the Speech Code

It is no surprise that I am hostile to NAR’s silly and immoral Speech Code. I thought it was a bad idea when NAR proposed it, thought it immoral when NAR persecuted pastor Brandon Huber using it, suggested that NAR repeal it when Trump won an unexpectedly huge landslide of a victory, and was outraged when NAR used it to go after Wilson Fauber, yet another conservative Christian.

To date, NAR has done nothing. Their leadership got together in Boston after Trump’s win and did nothing. Instead, we’ve had Realtor junkies actually defend the Speech Code both on social media and on the pages of Inman News.

But as I have said repeatedly since November, 2024 is not 2020. The world has changed. We no longer live in “bend-the-knee” Summer of Love, but in a new morning in America.

In my post exhorting NAR to repeal the Speech Code, I wrote:

Team Trump 2.0 agree on some things, and disagree on some things — they have said so themselves, with Trump telling RFK Jr., a longtime environmental lawyer, to “Stay away from the black gold” during his victory speech Tuesday night. With such strong personalities, I am certain they don’t agree on everything.

But there is one thing that they all agree on: freedom of speech.

Censorship, cancel culture, and suppression of viewpoints are what ultimately brought people like Elon Musk and Tulsi Gabbard over to Team Trump. Censorship was the issue that brought Joe Rogan around. Censorship is the thing that motivated millions of on-the-fence Trump voters — not the die-hards wearing MAGA hats, but the disaffected centrists and independents who had lived through censorship and gaslighting of the past few years.

Add to that the utter disdain that Team Trump has for wokeness in general, and corporate wokeness in particular, and you have a new reality for NAR to face.

And now comes news that President Trump has nominated Harmeet Dhillon to be the Assistant Attorney General in charge of the Civil Rights Division. She is a lawyer from the Bay Area of California, who is nonetheless a “MAGA darling” because of her stance on a wide range of culture-war issues.

This is her nonprofit organization, Center for American Liberty:

See the tagline? “Standing up for Free Speech and Civil Liberties”? Then go check out their cases, paying particular attention to Antonucci v. Winters.

Then watch this interview from earlier this year:

Does this lady sound like someone who likes speech codes?

Now add in the fact that the Dhillon Law Group, her private practice law firm, represents Homie in its antitrust case against NAR. Do we think Dhillon is somewhat familiar with NAR?

So… first of all, the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division might be crawling up NAR’s… er… chimney to investigate the Speech Code and how NAR has used it to silence and suppress at least half of its own Realtor members. Harmeet Dhillon is now in charge of that Division.

But possibly more importantly, Dhillon could go have lunch with her counterpart over at the Antitrust Division, Gail Slater, who by all accounts appears to have no knowledge of or experience with real estate antitrust cases, and share what she knows. It is not possible that Dhillon does not know at least some of what her team at Dhillon Law Group must have investigated in the Homie v. NAR lawsuit.

Now add on the fact that NAR’s Chief Advocacy Officer, Shannon McGahn, is going to find a very different environment in DC when she goes to talk to people in the Trump 2.0 Administration. (Yes, she has a connection to the first Trump Administration through her husband, Don McGahn, who was White House Counsel under Trump 1.0… but the relationship there may have soured.)

Imagine the first time she’s over at HUD talking about flood insurance or whatever, and her counterpart is like, “So, you guys at NAR sure do like going after Christians — what’s up with that?” Or maybe, “Is it true that you Realtor types think the Bible is hate speech?” before getting down to business.

They can say that since the Virginia Association of Realtors have found Wilson Fauber guilty of hate speech, for a Bible verse he posted in 2015 — before the Speech Code was passed. They did this, while funding a drag queen show with member dues dollars from NAR.

I don’t think the Trump 2.0 Administration tolerates this. They will deliver a message to NAR, either whispered behind the scenes, or with a loudspeaker in a second lawsuit from the DOJ — this time, from the Civil Rights Division.

Either way, I am predicting that NAR Leadership — a particularly dense and arrogant bunch — will get the message in 2025. Standards of Practice 10-5 and associated provisions, aka, the Speech Code, will be repealed.

A big part of the push, I believe, will be people like Wilson Fauber and Leigh Brown who realize that you’ve got to stand for something, or you’ll fall for anything. They will have taken that stand and convinced (compelled?) NAR to stop falling for anything.

Conclusion

2024 will go down in history as a pivot point. I thought 2023 was a big year, but 2024 is without a doubt a turning point. It wasn’t only that the NAR Settlement was proposed, accepted, implemented and now finally approved. It was also the size and scale of Trump’s victory, and the political, social and cultural changes that brought on as well.

None of us truly know what the next few years will bring; I make these predictions knowing that I don’t actually know. My track record in past predictions bear out the abysmal batting average, which is quite intentional. The point of these Seven Predictions, after all, is not to be correct but to spur on thinking about the future based on the past and the present. It is the journey that is fun and important, not the destination.

As in past years, I would like to say thank you to all of you who give me your attention, some of who give me your hard earned money, and others who give me your friendship. Without you, I would not be doing this. Well, actually, I probably would because I am a frustrated writer wannabe, but still… you make writing this blog more fun for me.

As controversial and provocative as some of my stuff may be, I didn’t mean to cause a big scene. Just give me an hour, and then… well, I’ve got friends in low places, y’all. I’ll be okay.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year everybody! See you all next year!

-rsh