Grading Time! The 2024 Predictions

The annual traditional continues...

Dec 16, 2024

Yes, it’s that time of year again. 2024 will go down in history as the pivot year, when the industry changed. The NAR Settlement was a major shift, though we have not yet seen its full impact, and so much of real importance happened in 2024.

Thing is, I made seven predictions last year… always guaranteed wrong or your money back! (Does not apply to VIP subscriptions.) It’s time to see how I did. I do like to grade myself in advance of my next set of predictions. So let’s take a look.

Here’s where we stand after 14 years:

2010 Predictions: 6 for 10 (.600)
2011 Predictions: 4.5 for 7 (.642)
2012 Predictions: 2 for 7 (.286)
2013 Predictions: 4.5 for 7 (.642)
2014 Predictions: 3 for 7 (.429)
2015 Predictions: 2.5 for 7 (.357)
2016 Predictions: 1 for 7 (.143)
2017 Predictions: 2 for 7 (.286)
2018 Predictions: 1.5 for 7 (.214)
2019 Predictions: 2 for 7 (.286)
2020 Predictions: 0 for 7 (.000)
2021 Predictions: 3.5 for 7 (.500)
2022 Predictions: 1.75 for 7 (.250)
2023 Predictions: 0.5 for 7 (.071)
Lifetime Batting Average: 34.75 for 101 (.344)

Let’s see how my 2024 predictions performed.

1. Multidistrict Litigation Comes - NO

Last year I predicted that due to a flood of copycat lawsuits, the federal courts would pile all of them together in a single court under what is called MDL: Multidistrict Litigation.

Everything was lining up to call for centralizing all of the lawsuits into a single court for administration. Then RE/MAX, Anywhere and KW all settled and received preliminary approval. NAR then announced its settlement on March 15.

So… the Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation denied the motion to centralize into a MDL:

Given the broad contours of this new settlement agreement and the changing landscape of the parties’ positions on centralization, we think it wise to deny centralization at this time. The settlement may well resolve at least some claims in this litigation, if not many. We cannot speculate on the number of parties and claims that will remain once this and any other settlements are approved.

It does seem likely that had there not been the settlements, in particular the NAR Settlement, then JPML would definitely have centralized all of the cases into one. Still… the settlements meant ixnay to the DLMay.

2. The Three-Way Agreement Goes Up in Smoke - Sorta… 0.5

So last year, I predicted that some local Associations that owned and controlled their own MLSs will consider leaving NAR completely.

All of these locals faced liability — and continues to face liability — because of NAR’s rules and policies, which they must follow. Except the locals own and control the MLS itself. I thought that meant that a few independent locals would just leave NAR completely and go their own way.

That would force the Three Way Agreement to go poof.

That did not happen. Everybody grumbled and there were some meetings held, and some conversations that occurred, but no one actually took the step of separating from Daddy NARbucks.

I do, however, give myself half a point here because a state association did directly request “flexibility” in allowing its members to choose which levels of the Association they wanted to join.

The Alabama Association of Realtors sent a letter to NAR in September that has made serious waves. In the letter we read:

[T]here is a growing and vocal desire for greater choice and flexibility in deciding where members spend their hard-earned membership and dues dollars. Members have expressed that they feel constrained within the current membership structure that requires them to join the local, state, and national levels. This sentiment is widespread across Alabama, in rural and urban areas, and among both small and large companies.

Granted, that isn’t leaving per se, nor is it blowing up the Three-Way Agreement. But boy, it is a big step towards blowing up the Three-Way Agreement, isn’t it? And the fact that it comes from one of the 50 state associations strikes me as possibly significant as well.

I think awarding myself a 1/2 score is appropriate. Would you begrudge me that much? I don’t think so.

0.5 points for this one.

3. 2024 NAR NXT Changes Venue - NO

Last year, I thought for sure that NAR would be losing members in droves, after the RE/MAX, Anywhere, and KW settlements all contained clauses that prohibited these companies from requiring their agents to be Realtors.

I predicted that by November of 2024, when NAR NXT was scheduled, NAR could lose somewhere between 80 and 85 percent of its membership. Which meant that fewer people would pay enormous sums to travel to Boston for the conference.

Well, that was just straight wrong, wasn’t it?

I mean… yes… the energy and the excitement wasn’t there this year, but people attended. Boston turned out to have been a terrible choice for a Realtor conference in November… but it was held at the originally scheduled conference center.

Inertia is strong in real estate; we saw that ourselves this year. I got this one wrong, for sure.

4. First AI Real Estate Agent Launches - YES

Last year, I predicted that we would see the first AI real estate agent launch, but in rentals and property management, because that’s an area of residential real estate the industry kinda treats with contempt. Plus, all of the “most important and emotional decision of your life” stuff kinda goes out the window with rentals. I wrote:

For a would-be tenant, an AI Agent would indeed provide almost all of the value that a human real estate agent would. Enter your search terms, upload images, and have the AI Agent scour the internets and message boards and whatever and find an apartment somewhere? Yep. Help the tenant understand the leasing process, and what the actual lease terms mean? Yep. Help the tenant with credit checks, deposits, etc.? Yep.
For the landlord, most of what a leasing agent does is paperwork and process — things that computers and AI excel at doing. So much of property management can be automated, and good AI will be able to handle all of that as well. Automate marketing with AI? Then have the AI automatically upload the rental listing to all the portals? Sure, why not.

So the first place we see a consumer-facing AI real estate agent will be in rentals and leasing… and it will fly under the radar for the industry.

Well, a quick Google search shows companies like like Zuma, BetterBot, Nurture Boss, and others have popped up. I’m also seeing quite a few “AI Assistants” for short term rentals, like this video shows off:

This is merely the first inning of the AI revolution in property management and leasing. These AI bots and assistants are rather rough Gen-1 prototypes. But I think it’s safe to say that we have seen the first AI real estate agent in residential real estate, all of which will be dramatically improved over the next couple of years.

I’m giving myself a Yes on this one.

5. Anywhere Goes on a Rollup Streak - NO

I mean… yeah. Hoo boy, I got this one completely wrong, eh?

When I made the prediction, it was right after Anywhere had reached its settlement in the big commission lawsuits. That settlement gave immunity to Anywhere and RE/MAX and all of their “past, present and future… subsidiaries… and all of their respective franchisees.”

I thought that meant that if Anywhere acquires a company, including another franchise company, everyone there gets immunity from the commission lawsuits.

I figured, why wouldn’t Anywhere take advantage of this window and just go snap up company after company?

Welp, they didn’t. I suppose one obvious answer is that Anywhere itself didn’t quite know how much further liability it might be exposed to outside of the Sitzer/Burnett/Moehrl lawsuits and maybe it couldn’t raise the funding necessary to do a big rollup. Who knows?

Either way, Anywhere didn’t do much in 2024. Turns out, it was Compass that would make the big acquisition this year… and that had nothing to do with the settlements.

6. The Long-Awaited Housing Crash Comes… But Not for the Reasons that Anyone Thought - NO

Uh yeah, I got that wrong — thankfully.

I thought the stupidity of legislators would trigger a collapse in investor interest, which then triggers a crash in housing prices.

I thought the End Hedge Fund Control of American Homes Act would pass, and then destroy real estate investor demand:

There will likely be a tiny nod to the average landlord who owns only one investment property — perhaps the new anti-landlord law would exempt 1-4 properties from punitive taxation. With the inflation-ravaged economy we have, it’s going to be hard to argue that someone who owns 50 rental units is an average middle class retiree so politicians can lower the bar on what it takes to be the despised rich. The revolution always starts with the nobility, and ends with kulaks.
Once you make owning real estate as an investment financially ruinous, you will get a flood of inventory hit the market very quickly. That glut of supply naturally drives home prices down, down, down. Congresscritters can preen and take credit for “making housing affordable.”

Well, that piece of legislation didn’t pass. In fact, I don’t think it made it out of committee. 2024 ended up being a very, very weird political year (which I didn’t know when I made my predictions). I mean… who had palace coups, a candidate for President who was selected not elected, two failed assassination attempts, and a landslide comeback victory on their predictions cards?

Anyhow, the point is that I got this wrong because I got the politics completely wrong.

7. Sam DeBord Named as CEO of NAR - NO

To be fair… I sorta thought this was one of the predictions that should happen, but didn’t really think it was likely that it would happen.

I mean… Sam is all sorts of qualified, as I wrote in my predictions. But he is a straight white man who identifies as straight, white and male in an era when NAR has gone all in on DEI.

In retrospect, there was no chance that the Executive Team at the National “DEI IS EVERYTHING” Association of Realtors was going to replace a black woman interim CEO with a straight white dude. Especially after spending enormous time and resources badgering local Associations about how to make Diversity, Equity and Inclusion central to everything they do, (I was there in Association boardrooms, I know there was badgering that happened) including teaching them about “Best Practices for Recruiting Diverse Association Staff.”

I was wrong in thinking that the real problems that were staring NAR in the face in the winter of 2023, having lost the Sitzer v. NAR verdict, that NAR leaders would come to their senses:

As NAR confronts the greatest crisis in its 100-plus years history, it needs a smart, savvy, tech-forward, new media personality CEO who truly loves and believes in the organization… perhaps even to a fault. It might require that level of unquestioning love and loyalty to shepherd NAR through what comes next.
I predict NAR’s search committee, leadership team, and board of directors come to their senses — because nothing focuses the mind quite like the prospect of being hanged — and name Sam DeBord as the next CEO of NAR.

Nope. DEI IN EVERYTHING, DEI IS EVERYTHING.

I got that wrong.

Conclusion

So… my score for 2024 predictions ends up at 1.5 out of 7 (.214). I mean, that’s really subpar for a major league hitter, and definitely unacceptable for the minor leagues as well. But for a set of predictions sure to be wrong, I am pretty excited to post such a low hit rate.

I sure am glad that there will be no refunds given this year. (Not that any refunds are available for anybody, but still… it’s the thought that counts.)

But let’s put 2024 into the history books, and prepare for 2025. This was a very very weird year for all of us for a whole lot of reasons. 2024 was momentous and will be seen in the future as a major turning point.

There will be time to reflect further, and time to plan for the future. But for now, it is the holidays. Christmas is around the corner, and maybe, just maybe, it is worth dwelling on the good things in life, on friends and family, on opportunities, on hope, and on faith.

Merry Christmas to you all, and may there be peace on earth and goodwill towards all men.

-rsh