I'm not an economist either, far from it. However, I'm following the story line for everything government at the moment and that includes the money. You mentioned a bunch of scenarios for what could happen in terms of things we historically look at when discussing the economy (money supply, wages, taxes etc.) - all the white swan topics. If I recall you're also open to possible black swan events (or solutions). IMO, the reset will include addressing our money problems and the solution isn't on the list. I base this line of thinking as many of the other things going on (border, war, tariffs, social, corruption, DOGE etc. etc.) are being handled in ways, while previously mentioned, were not considered by many to be realistic much less implemented - but they are in real time. So, I'm sticking with what would once be the traditional ways of correcting the deficit, money supply, the economy in general etc. will not be anything from mainstream thinking. Will the fed be eliminated? Is DOGE cleaning up the waste and fraud in preparation for the ability to actually have a "golden age" via the creation of a totally new financial system? Is income tax going away? Is the gold still in Fort Knox? Will money move to a blockchain? What is the future of the dollar and digital currency? Will the U.S. incorporate Greenland, Mexico and/or Canada? Is the real big money in minerals? etc. etc. These are just a few things being discussed at the highest level of our government. IMO, we haven't come to this point only to end up with a traditional solution to our economic problems. I certainly don't know what those solutions will be, but as a gambler I would fade the norms and bet on a story line that's not being openly discussed or part of traditional solutions. It looks like we won't have to wait long to find out...Thanks, Brian
Whew, that's a lot of questions. Let me see if I can address a couple of them.
1. I am always open to black swan events; in fact, I have a series of presentations called "Black Swans in Real Estate." However, if you can even conceive of it, it isn't a black swan... it's more of a grey goose. So sure, perhaps aliens land next month and unveil productivity solutions that make all this meaningless; that would be a black swan event. But let's talk about grey goose events.
2. Is it possible that the Fed is eliminated, and the USD goes on a gold standard or a Bitcoin standard or whatever? I suppose so. But that doesn't change the $36T in debt which either has to be paid or be repudiated. I discussed why it won't be repudiated.
3. DOGE was a topic I addressed specifically in my NARPM presentation. I agree with Luke Gromen that DOGE (any kind of austerity) will result in a recession since Federal Govt is like 26% of GDP, a drop in tax receipts which means bigger deficits, which means more borrowing, which means more money printing.
4. Could we invade Mexico, Canada and Greenland and therefore generate so much wealth that we can pay back the debt, fix the money, and fix housing? I suppose. But that won't happen in the next 2 years.
I said at the NARPM event that I am extremely positive about America *in the longer term*. We have advantages that are the envy of the world, and that by getting government off our backs, we can solve our problems. But that requires going through withdrawal from the debt bubble binge we've been doing for 40-50 years, and requires significant economic pain.
That short-term economic pain will hit lower classes particularly hard, and RENT will be the most obvious source of that pain, which means landlords will face major risks -- both political and actual violence. Which is why property managers need to become ambassadors and diplomats for the owners.
My questions weren't literal and looking for you to answer. My response was meant to encourage us to think out of the traditional box. I don't know about you but I didn't see DOGE coming and who thought the border would actually be closed within two months (not a political position just facts). Those are just examples of things that are happening and happening in ways that weren't considered or even believable within such a short period of time. I'm just moving those events over to the financial problems we're facing. Chances are we don't know how the deficit will be fixed, I just believe it will and not in the way most are considering. I'm good with a "gray goose". We'll see. Thanks, Brian
Fantastic! Really enjoyed this discussion.
I'm not an economist either, far from it. However, I'm following the story line for everything government at the moment and that includes the money. You mentioned a bunch of scenarios for what could happen in terms of things we historically look at when discussing the economy (money supply, wages, taxes etc.) - all the white swan topics. If I recall you're also open to possible black swan events (or solutions). IMO, the reset will include addressing our money problems and the solution isn't on the list. I base this line of thinking as many of the other things going on (border, war, tariffs, social, corruption, DOGE etc. etc.) are being handled in ways, while previously mentioned, were not considered by many to be realistic much less implemented - but they are in real time. So, I'm sticking with what would once be the traditional ways of correcting the deficit, money supply, the economy in general etc. will not be anything from mainstream thinking. Will the fed be eliminated? Is DOGE cleaning up the waste and fraud in preparation for the ability to actually have a "golden age" via the creation of a totally new financial system? Is income tax going away? Is the gold still in Fort Knox? Will money move to a blockchain? What is the future of the dollar and digital currency? Will the U.S. incorporate Greenland, Mexico and/or Canada? Is the real big money in minerals? etc. etc. These are just a few things being discussed at the highest level of our government. IMO, we haven't come to this point only to end up with a traditional solution to our economic problems. I certainly don't know what those solutions will be, but as a gambler I would fade the norms and bet on a story line that's not being openly discussed or part of traditional solutions. It looks like we won't have to wait long to find out...Thanks, Brian
Whew, that's a lot of questions. Let me see if I can address a couple of them.
1. I am always open to black swan events; in fact, I have a series of presentations called "Black Swans in Real Estate." However, if you can even conceive of it, it isn't a black swan... it's more of a grey goose. So sure, perhaps aliens land next month and unveil productivity solutions that make all this meaningless; that would be a black swan event. But let's talk about grey goose events.
2. Is it possible that the Fed is eliminated, and the USD goes on a gold standard or a Bitcoin standard or whatever? I suppose so. But that doesn't change the $36T in debt which either has to be paid or be repudiated. I discussed why it won't be repudiated.
3. DOGE was a topic I addressed specifically in my NARPM presentation. I agree with Luke Gromen that DOGE (any kind of austerity) will result in a recession since Federal Govt is like 26% of GDP, a drop in tax receipts which means bigger deficits, which means more borrowing, which means more money printing.
4. Could we invade Mexico, Canada and Greenland and therefore generate so much wealth that we can pay back the debt, fix the money, and fix housing? I suppose. But that won't happen in the next 2 years.
I said at the NARPM event that I am extremely positive about America *in the longer term*. We have advantages that are the envy of the world, and that by getting government off our backs, we can solve our problems. But that requires going through withdrawal from the debt bubble binge we've been doing for 40-50 years, and requires significant economic pain.
That short-term economic pain will hit lower classes particularly hard, and RENT will be the most obvious source of that pain, which means landlords will face major risks -- both political and actual violence. Which is why property managers need to become ambassadors and diplomats for the owners.
My questions weren't literal and looking for you to answer. My response was meant to encourage us to think out of the traditional box. I don't know about you but I didn't see DOGE coming and who thought the border would actually be closed within two months (not a political position just facts). Those are just examples of things that are happening and happening in ways that weren't considered or even believable within such a short period of time. I'm just moving those events over to the financial problems we're facing. Chances are we don't know how the deficit will be fixed, I just believe it will and not in the way most are considering. I'm good with a "gray goose". We'll see. Thanks, Brian