[GUEST] Compass's Antitrust Gamble Could Shatter Zillow's Empire

Guest post from Greg Hague, broker and attorney

Greg Hague has written a guest post before for Notorious ROB, and I am pleased to welcome him back.

As is normal for me and guest posts, I do not edit them other than formatting changes. There is no music video at the end, since Greg did not provide one. The image above is from me, not Greg.

I do not necessarily agree or disagree with anything in here; I am happy to share good writing by interesting people and thinkers in the industry. But do note that Greg reaches a very different conclusion than I did on this same subject.

I am happy to use this platform to promote other voices and alternate views, but guest posts have to add something to the overall conversation in the industry. If you would like to present a counter-point, please make the writing good.

This is a public post, since guest posts should always be public to the whole community.

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Zillow's 24-hour policy ignited the most consequential real estate lawsuit of our generation. It will have a bigger impact than Sitzer on how we do business. And be assured that the tech giants are circling like vultures.

In my five decades as a real estate broker and attorney specializing in real estate, I've witnessed shifts that reshaped our industry in various ways. I cut my teeth in the 1970s representing my father and other prominent Cincinnati brokers, forging a settlement in a landmark civil rights case involving buyer steering, a case that fundamentally and positively changed how we approach fair housing. It was a wakeup call the industry needed at that time.

I wrote a newspaper article correctly predicting the outcome of the Sitzer case just after it was filed. It wasn't hard to see a jury concluding that our trade organization and big real estate firms had supported a structure designed to protect commission rates.

But I've never seen anything quite like what unfolded with Compass filing an antitrust lawsuit against Zillow in a New York federal court. What we're witnessing isn't just a corporate dispute; it's the opening shot in a war that will determine the future of how Americans buy and sell homes. Having analyzed real estate litigation for half a century, I can tell you this: Compass fired a legal missile that could blow Zillow's monopoly to smithereens.

The Shot Heard ‘Round the Real Estate World

Compass, America's largest residential brokerage by market share, pulled the trigger on what is legally considered the "nuclear option." In a 67-page federal complaint filed in the Southern District of New York, Compass alleged that Zillow Group violated federal antitrust laws through "anticompetitive tactics" designed to protect its monopoly over online home listings.

But here's what makes this case different from every other real estate lawsuit I've analyzed over the past 50 years: it's not about commissions, fair housing, or traditional brokerage practices. This is about who controls the digital gateway through which nearly every American searches for their next home.

Will it be concentrated? Will it be fragmented? Will there be a few choices or many? Will there be creativity and competition or monopoly and control?

What triggered this legal earthquake? A policy change Zillow quietly implemented in April 2025, a policy positioned to be about equal access to all publicly marketed listings and fairness to buyers.

A 24-Hour Ultimatum Broke the Camel's Back

Picture this scenario and tell me if it sounds familiar: You're working with sellers who want to test the waters before fully committing to putting their home on the market. Maybe they want to see if there's buyer interest at their dream price, or perhaps they value their privacy and don't want the entire neighborhood knowing their business immediately. For decades, since before most of you were even licensed, this was not only possible but was common practice in real estate.

Then the Clear Cooperation Policy (CCP) was implemented by our trade organization. The Clear Cooperation Policy requires MLS participants to submit listings to their MLS within one business day of marketing a property to the public. Since it was "our" trade organization, we accepted it.

But Zillow is a vendor. When NAR modified the Clear Cooperation Policy to permit agents to delay sending their listings to MLS feeds that go to Zillow and other portals, and Compass's Private Exclusives program gained attention and traction, Zillow dropped its 24-hour bombshell.

Zillow's 24-hour policy is deceptively simple yet devastatingly effective: any home that is publicly marketed for more than 24 hours before being posted to both Zillow and the local Multiple Listing Service (MLS) will be permanently banned from ever appearing on Zillow's platform. Not temporarily restricted. Not subject to review. Permanently banned.

To understand the magnitude of this move, you need to grasp Zillow's stranglehold on home search. With an average of 227 million unique monthly users (reported by Zillow in Q1 2025), Zillow isn't just a place buyers search for homes; it is the place. It has become the Google of real estate, the digital town square for homebuyers and sellers to first meet each other.

Compass CEO Robert Reffkin didn't mince words: "No one company should have the power to ban agents or listings simply because they don't follow that company's business model." But this lawsuit isn't just about corporate philosophy; it's about profits. Serious profits that could reshape how everyone in our industry conducts business.

This Case Could Rewrite Real Estate Law Forever

Having cut my teeth on antitrust principles when I attended law school in Washington DC during the Nixon administration, and having followed antitrust litigation since, I can tell you that Compass has weaponized the most powerful legal machinery available to take down monopolies. The Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, the same law that broke up Standard Oil and AT&T, contains two nuclear weapons that Compass is now deploying against Zillow.

Section 1: The Conspiracy Charge

Section 1 of the Sherman Act outlaws "every contract, combination, or conspiracy in restraint of trade." This isn't just legal jargon; it's the same provision that has toppled corporate giants for over a century. Compass alleges that Zillow's policy isn't just a unilateral business decision; it's part of a coordinated effort with industry players to stifle competition. The lawsuit specifically names Redfin as a co-conspirator, claiming these platforms are working together to eliminate private listing networks.

Section 2: The Monopolization Bomb

Section 2 prohibits monopolization and attempts at monopolizing any aspect of interstate commerce. Here's where Compass believes it has struck legal gold. The company argues that Zillow's 24-hour rule represents textbook "exclusionary conduct," effectively using market dominance not to compete on merit, but to eliminate competitors entirely.

The evidence appears compelling. Zillow's policy specifically targets what Compass calls its competitive advantage: the ability to offer sellers "Private Exclusives" and extended "Coming Soon" periods. These services allow sellers to test pricing, gauge interest, and maintain privacy, exactly the kind of innovation that antitrust law was designed to protect when I first started practicing law.

Treble Damages and the Nuclear Option

Here's where this case transforms into a potential industry earthquake. Under federal antitrust law, and I've seen this play out in countless cases, successful plaintiffs don't just recover their losses. They receive treble damages, meaning three times their actual harm, plus attorneys' fees and costs.

So, what could Compass potentially recover? Conservative estimates suggest the company has lost tens of millions in potential revenue from listings that might have used their Private Exclusives service but were scared away by Zillow's ban. Factor in lost market share, diminished competitive positioning, and reduced agent recruitment, you're likely looking at provable damages reaching $50-75 million.

Apply the treble damages multiplier, and suddenly Zillow faces a $150-$225 million judgment.

Zillow has the resources to defend itself and the money to pay a big judgment if it's assessed. Courts have historically been generous in antitrust damages calculations, recognizing that monopolistic behavior often causes harm that's difficult to quantify precisely, something I learned during the telecommunications breakup cases of the 1980s.

But the damage to Zillow's reputation could make a monetary damages award look tiny. This lawsuit will receive widespread consumer-focused press coverage. When America's homebuyers learn that Zillow's model is to sell them as leads, and home sellers learn that they are used as the bait, I don't see a positive PR outcome for Zillow. And if this case isn't settled and goes to trial, a jury (like the Sitzer jury) will decide who wins. In my view, Compass's moral positioning to a jury significantly outweighs Zillow's.

Reading the Legal Tea Leaves: Probability of Victory

Having observed hundreds of antitrust cases over five decades, from the IBM case of the 1970s to the Microsoft battles of the 1990s, I can tell you that Compass has assembled a strong case. But the path to victory is fraught with legal landmines that could explode at any moment.

Compass's Winning Arguments:

• Clear Exclusionary Conduct: Zillow's policy explicitly punishes competitors for offering differentiated services

• Undisputed Market Dominance: With an average of 227 million monthly users, Zillow's monopoly position is virtually unassailable

• Demonstrable Consumer Harm: The policy reduces seller choice and limits the growth of innovative marketing options

• Smoking Gun Timing: The policy's implementation coincided directly with the growth of Compass's Private Exclusives program

Zillow's Likely Defense Strategy:

• Pro-Competitive Justification: Zillow will argue the policy promotes market transparency and equal access for buyers

• Industry Alignment: The policy aligns with the National Association of Realtors' Clear Cooperation Policy

• No Duty to Deal: Companies generally aren't required to provide platforms for competitors

• Legitimate Business Rationale: Preventing market fragmentation serves broader consumer interests

My Settlement Prediction

This case will ultimately hinge on one crucial question: Is Zillow's policy primarily designed to improve market transparency (pro-competitive), or to eliminate competitive threats (anti-competitive)? The timing of the policy, coming just after NAR announced its MLS option to delay portal display of new listings and Compass's Private Exclusives gained market attention and traction, strongly suggests the latter.

Based on my experience with similar antitrust settlements dating back to the Carter administration, I predict Compass has the upper hand and Zillow will settle before trial, paying between $85-$140 million in damages, with Zillow agreeing to discontinue its 24-hour policy. I also see the public attention and scrutiny of industry practices stemming from this lawsuit resulting in the end of NAR's Clear Cooperation Policy.

Three Scenarios That Could Define Our Industry

Having watched our industry evolve through multiple disruption cycles, I see three distinct paths forward, each with profound implications for how you'll practice real estate in the coming decade:

Scenario 1: Compass Wins at Trial (20% probability)

If Zillow doesn't settle (it should) and Compass secures a decisive victory with a massive damages award, this will signal open season on dominant platforms. Expect a flood of new entrants offering innovative listing services, private networks, and alternative search experiences. The MLS system could fracture into specialized platforms serving different market segments, similar to how the airline industry deregulated in the 1980s.

Scenario 2: Negotiated Settlement (70% probability)

A negotiated settlement that eliminates Zillow's policy will create significant opportunities for new players in the real estate marketing space. These platforms will leverage AI and novel approaches to offer yet unimagined choices. This will enable savvy agents to differentiate themselves and compete by recommending various platforms to their clients. This innovation will be propelled by the elimination of NAR's Clear Cooperation Policy, which I predict to be a certainty.

Scenario 3: Zillow's Fortress Holds (10% probability)

If Zillow successfully defends its policy, it will cement the platform's dominance but also attract intense regulatory scrutiny. This scenario makes government intervention more likely and could trigger broader antitrust investigations into real estate technology, something I've witnessed happen repeatedly when monopolies become too brazen.

Triggering a Tech Invasion

Here's the angle that some industry observers may miss, and this is what my five decades of experience reading legal tea leaves tells me: this lawsuit isn't just about Compass vs. Zillow. It's the catalyst that will trigger the most dramatic transformation of real estate technology and home marketing options since the invention of the MLS system.

The Platform Wars Are Coming

Big tech companies have been quietly circling the real estate industry for years, recognizing it as "the single largest asset class in the world." This lawsuit creates the perfect entry point for platforms with deep pockets and zero legacy constraints, exactly the kind of disruption I witnessed when online brokerages first challenged traditional models in the 1990s.

Google: The Search Giant's Real Estate Gambit

Google has been testing real estate features within Google Maps and possesses the advertising infrastructure to challenge Zillow's lead generation monopoly. A fragmented listing ecosystem created by this lawsuit could give Google the opening it needs to launch a comprehensive home search platform that integrates seamlessly with Gmail, Calendar, Maps, and Drive. Think about it: they already know where you work, where you shop, and where you travel. Your next home is the logical next step.

Meta (Facebook): The Social Real Estate Revolution

Facebook already owns significant VR technology through its Meta division, and real estate is projected to become a $2.6 billion VR market by 2025. Imagine a platform where you can view homes in virtual reality, get recommendations from your social network, and complete transactions without ever leaving the Facebook ecosystem. For agents, this could mean reaching clients through entirely new channels.

Amazon: The Everything Store Meets Real Estate

Amazon has already made strategic moves into real estate with its TurnKey Home Buying Program (announced in 2019) and investments in Plant Prefab, a sustainable home builder. The company that revolutionized e-commerce could easily launch a home marketplace that integrates with its logistics network, financing capabilities, and smart home ecosystem. When Amazon decides to sell homes the way it sells everything else, traditional brokerages must prepare for significant changes.

What This Means for Your Business

For the real estate professionals reading this, the ground beneath your feet is shifting. Those who adapt fastest will capture the biggest opportunities. I've witnessed this transformation with disruptors in industry after industry (e.g., Amazon, Airbnb, Uber, Stripe, Travelocity, Canva, OpenAI).

Those who thrive in the years ahead will be those who understand that listings are just the beginning. The golden opportunity will be successfully navigating the increasingly complex and creative digital ecosystem on behalf of your clients. Think of yourself less as a listing gatekeeper and more as a guide through the digital maze of options that home buying and selling will become.

Here's what you should be doing right now:

• Diversify your listing marketing beyond MLS, Zillow, and traditional portals by testing newer platforms and private networks

• Build expertise with emerging marketing platforms and technologies before they become mainstream, positioning yourself as an early adopter

• Evaluate and experiment with new technologies that could disrupt traditional search patterns, including AI-powered tools and virtual reality platforms

• Strengthen your direct client relationships to reduce dependence on any single platform for lead generation

• Develop specialized knowledge in niche market segments that may emerge as platforms fragment

The Revolution Will Be Digitized

What we're witnessing isn't just a lawsuit; it's the first domino falling in a restructuring of how Americans interact with real estate. The old model of a few dominant platforms controlling access to listings is already cracking under the pressure of innovation, consumer demands, and it will now topple in the wake of this lawsuit.

Having been a broker, real estate trainer, and attorney since the 70s, and having advised agents and real estate firms through fair housing lawsuits, commission battles, and technology disruptions, I can tell you this: change will be your only constant in the next few years. The question isn't whether this transformation is coming; it's whether you'll capitalize on the wave or be swept away by it.

The Compass vs. Zillow lawsuit may have started as a dispute over a 24-hour policy, but it will end as the catalyst that democratizes real estate technology, empowers innovation, and ultimately puts consumers back in control of how they buy and sell homes.

Choose your side carefully because in my experience, those who resist, or even hesitate, during industry inflection points get left behind.

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The author, Greg Hague, has been a real estate broker and attorney specializing in real estate law since the 1970s. He has provided advice and commentary on landmark industry cases spanning five decades and is currently CEO of 72SOLD. This analysis represents an informed opinion based on publicly available information and should not be construed as legal advice.