Between Black Pill and White Pill

NAR fought like hell to keep its Zombie Members...

“There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.”

- Vladimir Lenin

I got a LinkedIn notification yesterday that someone had mentioned me in a post. I dutifully went and checked it out.

The post in question is by Todd Carpenter, the former Director of Strategic Investments and prior to that, the Managing Director of Data Analytics at NAR. He spent just under 10 years in the Chicago HQ of NAR, and I happen to know that he was very much plugged into all things NAR. He was once one of the most stalwart defenders of NAR among the mostly Gen-X “RE.net” generation, which includes luminaries like Mike Simonsen, Heather Elias, Jay Thompson, Jeff Turner and Ginger Wilcox.

And here is the post he wrote on LinkedIn. In it, he argues that if and when NAR loses 70-80% of its membership — which is what I predicted in my presentation at MLS Reset — that would be a good thing. Because he thought that would get rid of the riffraff:

When I built NAR’s member data analytics team, we evaluated every member based on their engagement with the association. Did they open our emails? Did they donate to RPAC? Did they earn their ePro certification? We found that members generally fit into two groups. Internally, my team unofficially called them Super Members and Zombie Members. Our data showed a split between these groups that closely matched Rob’s estimate.

Those who would leave are the Zombie Members. They aren’t really engaged with the association beyond paying for MLS access. This doesn’t make them bad, or unproductive agents; they’re just completely disengaged from NAR’s value proposition. Many probably don’t even pronounce REALTOR® correctly.

Those who would stay are the Super Members. They have a true affinity for NAR. They believe in the Code of Ethics, in education, and in advocacy. They contribute the vast majority of the money raised for RPAC. They see the term REALTOR® as a label of prestige.

What I read both floored me, infuriated me and filled me with hope. I find myself between the black pill and the white pill. I figured y’all should join me in this weird headspace.

If Todd is correctly describing the past, then what NAR has done is unforgivably reckless. People need to be held accountable, at least to the brokers, MLSs, and Associations who paid out millions to date, with millions more to go. On the other hand, when a once-stalwart Fidei Defensor like Todd gets to a place where losing 75% of the membership is seen as a positive… then perhaps a time for healing is here.

Let’s get into it.